Caribbean Sea the calmest yet at the start of October

Current two-day weather outlook for the Caribbean basin, as at 10:24 am local time (Photo: National Hurricane Centre)

Two months away from the end of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and the Caribbean basin has gotten some reprieve as the region experiences a lull in activity.

As at Tuesday, October 1, only two major disturbances were observed in the Caribbean Sea by the National Hurricane Centre in Florida.

The first, located just west of Jamaica, is a broad area of low pressure located over the northwest Caribbean. The system is producing an area of disorganised cloudiness and thunderstorms.

Satellite imagery of the north Atlantic showing Hurricane Lorenzo (top right) and two disturbances in the Caribbean Sea (Photo: National Hurricane Centre)

Development, if any, is expected to be slow as the system crawls west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

The second system is a band of disorganised cloudiness and showers extending from the southeast Bahamas and stretching northeast over the western Atlantic for several hundred miles.

The disturbance, associated with a surface trough, is not expected to develop while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and east of Bermuda.

2019 setting records of its own

It has been an active hurricane season so far, with Dorian and Lorenzo heralding 2019 as the fourth consecutive season to feature at least one Category 5 hurricane (Matthew in 2016; Irma and Maria in 2017 and Michael in 2018).

The season’s first hurricane, Barry, formed in mid-July in the northern Gulf of Mexico and struck Louisiana.

After 5 weeks without tropical cyclones, activity began to ramp up in late August with a few storms developing, including Hurricane Dorian, the second hurricane and first major hurricane of the season.

Activity increased further in September when Hurricane Humberto formed and later brought hurricane-force winds to Bermuda, followed by Tropical Storm Imelda, which quickly formed over the Gulf of Mexico before it made landfall in Texas, causing catastrophic flooding.

Meanwhile, Lorenzo became the easternmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, still barrelling towards the Azores.