December 4, the day scientists predict coronavirus will end

By December 4, there should be an end to the coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 5 million people worldwide, and killed almost 400,000.

Scientists at the Singapore University of Technology and Design created a mathematical model which predicts future infections of Covid-19 using data from current confirmed cases and deaths.

The model is based on a ‘predictive-monitoring’ technique and inputs cases and deaths worldwide and visualises the data in a bar chart. A bell-shaped curve over the top displays the projected trajectory of the disease, including peak, acceleration and deceleration.

However the scientists said its prediction is open to change. The team said the model is “inaccurate to the complex, evolving and heterogeneous realities of different countries” and that “predictions are uncertain by nature”.

This is due to a number of factors, including the strengthening of restrictions in some places and the relaxing of measures in others, people not adhering to the measures or protests against lock down.